What’s Happening in the San Francisco Market?
With recent volatility in the stock market, many clients have been asking us how the San Francisco real estate market is responding. As with many things in Bay Area real estate, the answer is nuanced — but we have some compelling data to share. Since the effects of recent tariff discussions on the stock market have only taken place in recent weeks, much of the real estate insight we currently have comes from pending transactions and active buyer behavior. Let’s dive in.
In the past 30 days, San Francisco recorded 294 pending transactions. This number is significantly lower than what we typically see during the spring market, where 400–500 pending transactions in a 30-day period are more common.
Ultra-High-End Market ($5M+)
Interestingly, the ultra-high-end market continues to perform exceptionally well. Despite stock market fluctuations, nine properties above $5M have gone into contract in the past four weeks. Buyers at this price point are generally well-diversified and approach real estate as a strategic opportunity. Additionally, early initiatives from our new mayor, Daniel Lurie — including improvements in public safety and city cleanliness — are generating fresh optimism.
Luxury Market ($3M–$5M)
In the luxury market, ten homes have gone into contract, representing an absorption rate of 22.7%. (For reference, the absorption rate measures the percentage of available homes that go into contract in a given time period; higher rates suggest stronger demand.) By the numbers, this segment is technically in a seller’s market.
Entry-Level & Under $3M
At the entry-level tier up to $3M, where the bulk of the market transacts — 275 homes went into contract, with an absorption rate of 23.85%. However, this market subgroup is more complex. Well-presented, move-in-ready homes are selling quickly, and often over the asking price. Whereas properties with short-comings — such as lack of parking, limited storage, street-level windows, or outdated finishes — are sitting on the market for longer. Days on market are high for these homes, and only time will tell if price reductions will come, or if a rebound in the stock market could bring more buyers to the table to absorb these properties.
A Look Back — and Forward
When we look at historical patterns, today’s market bears a strong resemblance to the post-2008 environment we experienced from 2009 to 2011: bumpy, with short-term fluctuations. Then, in 2012, the market began an unprecedented 7-year run-up, eventually surpassing the 2007 peak by an astounding 88%.
Based on current data, we believe we are nearing the end of this bumpy cycle — likely within the next year. With that in mind, this current period may represent some of the most attractive buying opportunities we will see for a while.
Let’s Talk
If you would like to talk through what’s happening week by week in the San Francisco real estate market — or if you’re curious about how current conditions might benefit your buying or selling plans — we’d love to connect. Reach out to The Wilkerson Team. We’re here to help you find the perfect home and make the most of this unique moment in the market.
